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how can there be such a divergence between FTSE(bearish)Dow(no new highs)and the Spx(bullish breakout)?A resolution of the debt ceiling and gov't shutdown GUARANTEES a new high.In addition,with the gains we ve seen(2% a month)this year already...a bullish finale is not unreasonable to expect through December is it?Plus no drop in margin debt yet....the beat goes on!!!
Frankly, I'm now undecided. DOW and FTSE are quite far from their all time highs. SPX may make a marginal high. So we may finish this long rally with divergences rather than all making new highs. "guarantee" is a strong word. I used to use those strong words. We shall see.
A story that ran in Bloomberg on Monday said the movement we see in the S&P 500 now is an almost exact duplicate of what we saw in 1954—a year in which the S&P 500 rose 45%. The research found that the S&P 500 is moving pretty much the same on a day-to-day basis as it did in 1954. The correlation coefficient (a statistical measure that looks at the movement in two variables) is 0.95. The maximum you can have is 1. (Source: Bloomberg, September 30, 2013.)
In 1954, the S&P 500 reached the highest level since the Great Depression. (Yes, in 1954, 25 years later, the stock market finally broke above where it was in 1929)
I read about that but the conditions are nowhere near today. http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Michael-Lombardi-131004-Market-Repeat-of-1954.php
I hear you...lol.I only hope we all get out of this bull market before it becomes one of the most vicious bears we ll ever see.So far I missed 2000 and 2008 thanks to the January indicator and the fact that everyone was bragging about how easy it was to make money back then.When I heard that...I ran for the hills(and my money market account...lol).Good luck Bouraq.
By now you know the drill guys.....dip in after hours then rally in day session. This has been a consistent pattern over the past 1 week and I expect it to continue. As DC outlook becomes clearer, markets will breakout to the upside...first hurdling over 1702, then 1709, then 1729 on a gap. Just be patient bulls......bears are being trapped pretty good here as media is helping. Good luck!
So lonely being a bull.....everywhere I look around, everyone is a bear and they are bearish for the wrong reasons! Why would anyone short in anticipation of a US default......something that will never ever happen~
how can there be such a divergence between FTSE(bearish)Dow(no new highs)and the Spx(bullish breakout)?A resolution of the debt ceiling and gov't shutdown GUARANTEES a new high.In addition,with the gains we ve seen(2% a month)this year already...a bullish finale is not unreasonable to expect through December is it?Plus no drop in margin debt yet....the beat goes on!!!
ReplyDeleteFrankly, I'm now undecided. DOW and FTSE are quite far from their all time highs. SPX may make a marginal high. So we may finish this long rally with divergences rather than all making new highs. "guarantee" is a strong word. I used to use those strong words. We shall see.
ReplyDeleteA story that ran in Bloomberg on Monday said the movement we see in the S&P 500 now is an almost exact duplicate of what we saw in 1954—a year in which the S&P 500 rose 45%. The research found that the S&P 500 is moving pretty much the same on a day-to-day basis as it did in 1954. The correlation coefficient (a statistical measure that looks at the movement in two variables) is 0.95. The maximum you can have is 1. (Source: Bloomberg, September 30, 2013.)
ReplyDeleteIn 1954, the S&P 500 reached the highest level since the Great Depression. (Yes, in 1954, 25 years later, the stock market finally broke above where it was in 1929)
I read about that but the conditions are nowhere near today.
ReplyDeletehttp://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Michael-Lombardi-131004-Market-Repeat-of-1954.php
I hear you...lol.I only hope we all get out of this bull market before it becomes one of the most vicious bears we ll ever see.So far I missed 2000 and 2008 thanks to the January indicator and the fact that everyone was bragging about how easy it was to make money back then.When I heard that...I ran for the hills(and my money market account...lol).Good luck Bouraq.
ReplyDeletemy money market account).Good luck
By now you know the drill guys.....dip in after hours then rally in day session. This has been a consistent pattern over the past 1 week and I expect it to continue. As DC outlook becomes clearer, markets will breakout to the upside...first hurdling over 1702, then 1709, then 1729 on a gap. Just be patient bulls......bears are being trapped pretty good here as media is helping. Good luck!
ReplyDeleteSo lonely being a bull.....everywhere I look around, everyone is a bear and they are bearish for the wrong reasons! Why would anyone short in anticipation of a US default......something that will never ever happen~
ReplyDelete