Wednesday, 18 June 2014
Bears lost another battle
But the war is not over. As always, at every FOMC meeting, over and over again, the proper TA setups are trashed. I'm sure we reached some more record bullishness but Yellen still thinks this is not a bubble and the valuations are normal. As for her position protecting the status quo, she cannot say anything else. She has to defend the house of cards they have been building.
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SPX double top?
ReplyDeleteThere are some conditions of a double top. You need to check those. I don't track those patterns. Sometimes H&S but even that is not reliable.
ReplyDeleteAt what point do you trash the red line? It has been smashed through twice.
ReplyDeleteI've appreciated your charts and update to the website. As for the war not being over, I think it has been for quite some time already. You pretty much say as much in the last two sentences of the header post. The Fed controls the show and it does not look like they plan to change their approach. Appears that only a huge external event will cause any real correction.
ReplyDeleteOn the hourly chart it looks like a big violation but daily charts still looks healthy to me. I will post that tonight.
ReplyDeleteThanks. I beg to disagree. We will see if they have won the battle completely and the crashes are something of the past. As for external event, that event will be directly or indirectly caused by FED no one else.
ReplyDeleteYour charts are awesome! Thanks for posting.
ReplyDeleteRegarding this long-in-the-tooth bull market: Everyone loves to hate the rallies and "knows" the market is way overdone. But that's the very reason it's not done yet and won't be until most get on board the bull bus.
HI,
ReplyDeleteAs per the post in below blog, GOLD moving up from July 1st/2nd week daily cycle. Please review.
http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/2014/06/chart-of-day_18.html#comment-form
If that holds, what would be impact on equities as it looks like dollar keep going down with FED decision yesterday.
Thx
Hi,
ReplyDeleteUsually higher inflation stands for higher gold prices , isn't it? Say of US GDP number comes low in August , it definitely indicates deflationary pressure and hence Gold should be down to 1000 level.
Hence money will flow back to Equities till Equities top including all world indices.
So point is as we move forward , it's much of a deflation and unfortunately FED will say that @ end of 2015 :-).
Anyways please post new update and include RUT as well. Your charting has been great.
Thx
Gold hasn't been rising since 10 years due to high inflation. Inflation has been completely normal but gold went from 250 to 1900. At some point the investors will see other assets much cheaper than equities and a rotation will happen. Maybe not now.
ReplyDeleteRUT for you only... :) Still within the steep channel but the structure isn't very good so I'm not very confident about this channel.
right. I would say that traders jumped on. But how much of that move up was due to short covering? And how many bought to hang onto their positions longer than a few hours (or for just few minutes!) ?
ReplyDeleteLonger term traders and investors are still doubting this rally, and lots of short term traders continue to short it. We're seeing many traders attempting to short the top again and again just because it's overbought. (I'm not talking about you because you short only at your resistance lines.) Until those attempts at shorting the new highs dry up, I think we see the market continue to climb higher.