Tuesday, 30 April 2013

And gold...

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I haven't been posting on gold for a while. There is too much chatter on the PM but now that the uptrend is being established I can see a clear picture in the short term. 

After breaking the "closely watched" 1525 level, it formed the not-so-steep declining red channel. I think it will test the 1525 levels in the next 1-2 months period.

The uptrend is more or less established in the short term. From the looks of the green channel, 1442 level will be the point to hop on to the long bus and this channel seems to be a good candidate to take us to 1525 test. Hope it helps.

Friday, 26 April 2013

EUR and GBP strength

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In my posts here and here, both currencies were showing some upside potential which came true, more on the sterling though. GBP smashed the blue horizontal channel and didn't look back. It reached the target for my money, looks overbought and just hit resistance which I showed in the second pic. However, that resistance or being overbought would hardly stop its strength until it reaches the red channel upper band. 

Euro on the other hand couldn't show the same behavior. It looks like it is stuck inside a bull flag. Until is gets itself out of it above 1.3110, there will be little action here. Below 1.2990 wouldn't be good for the bulls. Hope it helps.


Thursday, 25 April 2013

Sugar telling something

1 comment :
Beside all the discussions on the "topping" equity markets, Sugar slowly presents a long term opportunity here. The prices are extremely oversold and depressed. The downside seems very limited and it is ripe for a strong bounce. Although it may take another couple of weeks to get out of the descending triangle, I think it is worth to watch the action closely. 
It is very close to the multiyear trendline support and currently sitting on the bottom of triangle resistance. Below 17 would jeopardize this nice technical picture but until then I will watch it closely. Hope it helps.

Wednesday, 24 April 2013

Russell and Euro update

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Russell bounced from the blue shaded area I showed in my previous post here. There are three different resistances at exactly where it stands right now. The red channel resistance, the potential H&S right shoulder resistance which I showed with blue line, and finally the potential declining channel support which is shown in green

Despite very bearish sentiment about Euro, the currency looks like getting prepared for another leg up if it breaks up the red support. If it does and makes a new high the green channel will be confirmed and the target would be 1.33-1.34 area. It may still break the red triangle downwards though. We will see.

Tuesday, 23 April 2013

GBP will decide soon

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My favorite currency pair for trendlines is GBPUSD and it will decide soon what to do in the next couple of weeks. It bounced back from the red support channel on the 3rd touch. The 4th touch with this pair is usually the break point. The prices are bound in a tight range in the last two weeks but this will soon change one way or another and I think the breaking of the blue channel will tell us the direction. Hope it helps.

Monday, 22 April 2013

I've been waiting for this

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I'm posting Coffee trade one more time because I've been waiting for this day for the last 3 months. The previous posts are here, here and here. The last 3 days have proven that the downtrend is broken now. The very strong positive divergences in the weekly and the daily time frames suggest much higher prices from here to get the indicators back to neutral. I have been reading very bullish news on coffee on websites specific for coffee traders. Just ask me if you are interested. Hope it helps.

Russell 2000 looking shaky

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I'm back with my daily posts after a 2 weeks break. Almost all indices were topping during these 2 weeks so I'm glad I haven't missed the action. Russell 2000 is one of my favorites which, until now, showed good short signals and channel breakouts. The blue shaded area is a strong support area for the bulls but it has tested it 5 times in the last one week. Bulls have enough reasons to be careful if this area is broken with conviction. For my channel rules, the upward trend from last November is broken and retested which I showed with red channel. One more thing to consider for bears is that, if it comes back to the blue shaded area now and make a lower low there will be a strong positive divergence. So careful with shorts. Hope it helps.

Monday, 15 April 2013

S&P couldn't break this one...yet

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I expect this level marked with the red resistance line to hold for quite a while. However, if we come to the this line again, it would be the 4th touch which, most of the time, is the break free hit. That would take us to 1700s but not for now. This race to the all time high was a breathless one. It needs to inhale. 

Tuesday, 9 April 2013

GBP in the zone

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I'm away from home so my posts will be coming along a bit irregular. I expect things to turn to normal in a weeks time. 

GBP is still in the red shaded zone which is a very important support area. I would be very surprised if it breaks up from there. 
However, a closer look is a bit alarming for the bears. An rising channel has formed after breaking the red declining channel at the 4th touch which is very usual with sterling pound. After breaking the red channel, the freedom was short lived because it came back to the red channel and touched it 3 times before resuming its rise. This is a plus for the bear case. The breaking of such channels as the red one usually sets it free and it shouldn't have looked back but it did. So until there is a break of the red shaded area with conviction I would be cautious with longs. Hope it helps.

Thursday, 4 April 2013

Brent disappointed

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I was expecting Brent to reach at least 120s but it came back to the channel support and broke it at the 4th touch which is usual. Now a downward trend has shaped but since the 5 year channel is now broken I expect this downwards journey will go steeper than this.

Triggers ready ?

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Tuesday, 2 April 2013

GBP update

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I was surprised after the strong GBP downtrend which I showed here broke upwards recently. However, the 3 year chart shows an extremely strong resistance above 1.52 and that's why GBP is continuing its downward journey today.
We will soon find out if the green channel is broken again downwards which would void that one as the main channel. If the prices make another lower low, another trendline will take shape and I'm watching that closely. Hope it helps.

Monday, 1 April 2013

The case with the wedges

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The wedge of AUD here turned into a strong channel with an initial target of 1.06. Considering that the dollar index is topping and EUR is getting ready for a bounce, AUD making this climb seems more probable.
The perfect dollar index channel has an ultimate target of 87-90 but short term it looks overheated and seems to be at the beginning of a correction which may take us close to the channel lower band.