Wednesday 27 March 2013

Next leg down C wave right ?

It was 4 years ago when I was introduced to Elliott Wave Theory and of course the 'magnificent' Bob Prechter. Imagine those times: S&P at 700, the world is collapsing, no jobs, no future, no nothing. Bob was telling everyone that he has seen this coming in his book from 2002! His prophecy was telling us that the markets will correct up to DOW 10000 and then the mighty C wave will come with total devastation. 

I was a beginner back then. A friend gave me his book which I read and got hooked up. It was so simple so beautiful. There was an order to mass psychology, to markets and the crystal ball was right there within this small book. I kept on following his daily and monthly publications for another year. Every time markets rallied, he and his team raced with each other to call the top. Oh yes there, oh no no it is now. It was insanity and I was very unlucky to have followed this path. After I gave up, I read another 50-60 books on trading methods and psychology from brilliant authors. I wish I had read those at the beginning instead of the voodoo. This is a business for Bob and he gets paid to be bearish and contrarian.  However, EW is something even the master cannot master. He still keeps calling the tops. One day he will be right and he will be on the TVs again. I'm sure he has lost 95% of his subscribers in the last 3 years, after making them lose tons of money. 

Here is my stand on EWT:
- It works only after several waves have developed. This is important. Counting 5 waves don't mean that ABC is coming. Those 5 waves can be from an A wave or a C wave. Only after several cycles, you can say "ahaaa now I see".
- It is very very very subjective. There are 13 different wave structures and every single person would count them differently.
- It is inherently bearish due to the count which makes you terribly prejudiced and opinionated. This haunts me today even after 3 years dropping the method.

I can count more but you get the idea. I don't do Elliott anymore. I trade what I see, period. I'm sure so many people would argue otherwise. They would tell you that there are people who can trade consistently with EW. Well, good for them.

Recently, EW published this graph which shows record low cash levels of mutual funds. He shows this graph at every top. The flaw with his claim is; cash levels were around 3.5% in the last 3 years. However, maybe he will be right this time and there will be a major top. The voodoo will work like a broken clock showing the right time twice a day.

4 comments :

  1. Thanks Bouraq for sharing your experience & thoughts. I'm fairly new in this gig & still learning through pains:( would you recommend some of the best books you read? Thanks again.
    Nikki

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  2. Hi Nikki,
    You can start with technical analysis bible, Murphy's Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets. Alexander Elder's books are good as well. John Carter has one book which I liked. And then there are books on trading psychology. Douglas's Trading in the Zone, and another author's The Art of the Trade are the ones which I can remember.
    There are more but you can start with these. Hope it helps.
    B.

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  3. loved it..specially "This is a business for Bob and he gets paid to be bearish and contrarian."

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  4. Bob's self confidence is amazing. You can listen to him for 5 hours non-stop and think he is a prophet. A false prophet :)

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