Thursday 20 June 2013

Terrible news for gold bugs

Ben's speech caused some volatility and during volatile markets a lot of gaps occur. These gaps get filled sooner than later. These event related volatilities are not good for channels because they disrupt the natural trading behaviours and tend to break the channels prematurely. Anyway, that's something everyone has to live with. 

Following Ben's speech, gold broke the substantial red support line it has been trying to break since the bear market started. The logarithmic chart shows a clear break and the next long term support on the horizon is the blue line now.
Until that blue line is hit we have a well established orange channel with clear inner resistance and support lines. The second bad news is the broken red declining channel on the fourth hit, the golden hit. I think orange channel will be our guide during this decline. The RSI looks oversold and there is strong positive divergence. An inner support is just hit so we may expect a bounce here. Any hit on the upper band of the orange channel is a good shorting opportunity.
The red channel of the Aussie dollar was not broken up yesterday. It bounced back down from the upper band right after Ben's speech. I don't know how he manages this. :)
The bad news for the Aussie dollar is that the green support from back in 2009-2010 is now broken. However, the chart indicates that these levels are loaded with supports shown with blue area and it may take some time for the Aussie to break all these levels. Considering the massive positive divergence on RSI, deeply oversold conditions, the blue support area, and the hit at the lower band of the red channel, a bounce may come quite soon.
Last but not least is the S&P. The red support was hit for the sixth time and broke down as I was writing this post. Good luck shorting. Hope it helps.

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