Weekend post

There is a clear, high probability setup where DOW may make a major high. The red resistance connecting 2000 and 2007 highs will be hit soon. The blue channel from October 2012 bottom had very sharply located the recent high in May. The cross section of the upper band of the blue channel and the red line will be a major resistance combined with a positive divergence on weekly RSI. This type of divergence delivered a medium term reversal back in 2011 shown in red ellipses which was followed by a 20% decline.

The bullish WTI setup which I called in my previous posts has delivered more than I have expected. I was expecting at least a bounce back from the orange resistance and then a break up some days later. However, the break up came very quickly at the 4th golden hit which I showed in the close up chart. The black very steep channel should break down soon. The green channel's support points are not perfect but they were caused by Ben's bearish speech which also caused a false break down of the red support. I'm curious to see if the orange resistance will act as support when the prices fall to that level.

 

Euro looks extremely bullish after the 300 pips following the break up of the red channel. A bull flag may be in the making but it is an early call for a channel. The blue channel is just a guide to how it may form. Any dip is a good chance to get on this Euro wagon.

Aussie dollar hasn't look this depressed since 2008 bottom. Something is burning down there. It is hard to call this a correction of the large bull trend anymore but any break out from the ever declining red channel will be a good long opportunity. The RSI has presented so many positive divergences but none has delivered a reversal. This is why indicators are not there to be used alone. You need something else to support them; channels, wave counts, fibonacci etc. Hope it helps.