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Bouraq, bot Wheat when you did, and had great confidence in the trade, but that now seems to have been zapped. Still holding though. In Aussie Dollar too. Been very sluggish lately. Do you think it has the strength to bounce here?
Hi B, Re your ES chart, yesterday all the activity took place below the green line: Look at all the ciaos on the cash above & below the green line....all the false buy/sell signals http://screencast.com/t/1ax4MstWe .....Watching the ES is a must ! BTW, Great charts!
John, The thing with the trendlines is even the slightest change in slope may change your perception of break out. Every method has a drawback and that's one of chanelling's hick up. The only way to overcome this is experience. According to my chart it was a perfect hit and reversal yesterday. I use continuous ES charts by the way.
Bouraq, I think the trading robots must be using the ES to trade And I wish I could get access to a good live chart!
Here is a better 2HR chart of the SPX CASH: I think the trendline is good, please tell me if it is not. If the line is good, compare the last few candles with your 4HR ES! It was a crazy day for anyone trading the SPX CASH.
http://screencast.com/t/z8NSSUHGV2yj
Sometimes the same thing happens with the SPY & the SPX.....you get bad signals on the SPY The best of regards
John, That support doesn't touch the second bottom. If you draw your line through the second bottom you will see that the recent rally was a perfect retest of that broken support.
I don't follow SPY. Too many charts confuses me. ES and only ES matters for my money and I only use continuous ES. Of course when I trade I do it with the nearest contract.
Mohamed, I sometimes receive quite blunt and overconfident messages. I thought yours was one of them. Frankly, I only trade what I see. I saw that wheat will bounce from a very long support and I went long. Wheat has been in a long term downtrend well before the dollar rally. Sugar is the same since 2011. So commodity downtrend is not 1 to 1 correlated with dollar rally. Similarly, I went long at the Aussie dollar long term channel break out. It is testing the upper band and even made a big dent on it so I may be wrong. But when I'm wrong I try to reveal here and tell it. I don't see that from many bloggers. Anyway, on AUD, if it doesn't reverse and rally tomorrow, my call is in big trouble. On Wheat, as I said, it may rally regardless of what USD does. I still have hope for wheat unless it violates 495. Hope it helps.
are you still short NG ? if you are, what would you do tomorrow, if NG didn't move in either direction ? As far as wheat do you believe it'a all clear, would you enter a new position at the current price ? thank you.
Great update as always! Sorry about your wheat trade--but remember I asked you to vote it off the island ;-)
ReplyDeleteBouraq, bot Wheat when you did, and had great confidence in the trade, but that now seems to have been zapped. Still holding though.
ReplyDeleteIn Aussie Dollar too. Been very sluggish lately. Do you think it has the strength to bounce here?
Thank you for posting these great charts!
ReplyDeleteYes I should have listened to you :) I still have faith though
ReplyDeleteHi B, Re your ES chart, yesterday all the activity took place below the green line: Look at all the ciaos on the cash above & below the green line....all the false buy/sell signals http://screencast.com/t/1ax4MstWe .....Watching the ES is a must ! BTW, Great charts!
ReplyDeleteJohn,
ReplyDeleteThe thing with the trendlines is even the slightest change in slope may change your perception of break out. Every method has a drawback and that's one of chanelling's hick up. The only way to overcome this is experience. According to my chart it was a perfect hit and reversal yesterday. I use continuous ES charts by the way.
Bouraq, I think the trading robots must be using the ES to trade And I wish I could get access to a good live chart!
ReplyDeleteHere is a better 2HR chart of the SPX CASH: I think the trendline is good, please tell me if it is not. If the line is good, compare the last few candles with your 4HR ES!
It was a crazy day for anyone trading the SPX CASH.
http://screencast.com/t/z8NSSUHGV2yj
Sometimes the same thing happens with the SPY & the SPX.....you get bad signals on the SPY
The best of regards
Just thought I would check the SPY: Different again!
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/jo1OLjBH0e3S
why you are so confident in the aussie and wheat, knowing that the dollar index about to reach new highs.
ReplyDeleteKnowing? Why are you so confident?
ReplyDeleteJohn,
ReplyDeleteThat support doesn't touch the second bottom. If you draw your line through the second bottom you will see that the recent rally was a perfect retest of that broken support.
I don't follow SPY. Too many charts confuses me. ES and only ES matters for my money and I only use continuous ES. Of course when I trade I do it with the nearest contract.
ReplyDeleteMohamed,
ReplyDeleteI sometimes receive quite blunt and overconfident messages. I thought yours was one of them.
Frankly, I only trade what I see. I saw that wheat will bounce from a very long support and I went long. Wheat has been in a long term downtrend well before the dollar rally. Sugar is the same since 2011. So commodity downtrend is not 1 to 1 correlated with dollar rally.
Similarly, I went long at the Aussie dollar long term channel break out. It is testing the upper band and even made a big dent on it so I may be wrong. But when I'm wrong I try to reveal here and tell it. I don't see that from many bloggers.
Anyway, on AUD, if it doesn't reverse and rally tomorrow, my call is in big trouble. On Wheat, as I said, it may rally regardless of what USD does. I still have hope for wheat unless it violates 495.
Hope it helps.
are you still short NG ? if you are, what would you do tomorrow, if NG didn't move in either direction ? As far as wheat do you believe it'a all clear, would you enter a new position at the current price ? thank you.
ReplyDelete