Monday 13 May 2013

Gold, GBP and AUD updates

Since my previous post on gold in the weekend, it looks like the blue channel is in charge here for a while. Unless this channel is broken downwards, I expect a jump from the lower band towards all the way to the upper. To me it still looks like a bull flag. Although many call lower prices on gold, I wouldn't sell it unless it goes below 1410.


British pound broke down the red channel, which should take us all the way down 1.42 levels by looking at the larger green declining channel. Surely, there will be interruptions on the way down and the levels marked by the ellipses show a potential resistance around 1.52-1.5250. I expect a consolidation there, maybe a rally up to 1.5350, but resuming declining action afterwards. 


My boldest call is perhaps on the Australian dollar which is very close to a major support for two reasons. The weekly chart that shows the 5 year channel on logarithmic scale indicates a potential orange triangle support and the blue channel support. The prices are getting oversold so this area should be closely watched for a major move higher. I'm calling for dollar strength on the british pound but australian dollar has a bullish picture against the dollar on the technical picture which cannot be ignored. If the triangle delivers and the prices break free the triangle, the target is 1.15. A very long shot but it is a possibility. The daily chart shows the support area clearly. Hope it helps.



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